Colossl Victory

So now using version 3 a summary of its performances over recent weeks and its predictions for the upcoming games Week 17-23  Review - Week 17 - 7 results with 2 scores Week 18 -  3 results with 0 scores Week 19 -  6 results with 1 score Week 20 -  5 results  with 2 scores Week 21 -  3 results with 0 scores Week 22 -  6 results with 2 score s Week 23 -  7 results 0 scores Overall a fairly good set of results with just a few poor weeks in the middle. Scores very low with this model but getting a clear improvement in results. Running just above the average for last season with 37/70 results. Week 23 Predictions - Home Predicted Score Away Arsenal 2-0 Cardiff Fulham 1-0 Brighton Huddersfield 1-0 Everton Wolves 2-1 West Ham Man United 1-2 Burnley Newcastle 0-1 Man City Bournemouth 1-0 Chelsea Southampton 1-0 Crystal Palace Liverpool 2-0 Leicester Tottenham 2-1 Watford A huge surprise there with Burnley to win away at Man ...

Version 3 The new predictive element I have calculated to be the best to use is a logistic regression machine learning element to predict result of a match. Followed  by taking the average xG scored and conceded by both the home and away team to produce an average value for the home team to score and away team to score which then uses a Poisson distribution with these numbers as mean to find the most likely score line with matching result to the first element. Naive Bayes and Results was selected by testing performance against 3 other predictors that use either Bayes or Logistic regression to predict either scoreline or result. The performance test was accuracy of predicting the correct result even if scoreline was used to train the data as ultimately that is what they are both trying to predict. Results shown below: ML\Predict Results Score Bayes 0.47 0.31 Logistic 0.50 0.47 So this is only a small improvement from the old version 2 predictor which got 0.46...

A major decision for managers of smaller clubs, who can’t just blow opposition teams away, is whether to go out quick at the start and try and get an early lead, then defend it or to keep it tight, before throwing everything at the wall for the last period of the match to try and snatch it at the death. Both methods have their benefits; the early attack gives more time to get the goal, but there’s no definitive end point as to when to start shutting up shop if the goal can’t be found as it’s unlikely a team would be able to keep up the intensity for a whole match. The late attack gives you more defensive security, as you prioritise not conceding in the early stages but can backfire if your opposition is fitter and have more in the tank at the end. What if it was possible to tell when is best to attack based purely on xG, if it could be shown that the time in the match affected how likely a shot was to be scored? It could help to decide when to attack to get the most out of it, or wh...

A link back to a thread I posted after the Cardiff game but seems still very relevant today https://twitter.com/colosslvictory/status/1034196536438087680 . We can't beat teams that sit deep and don't try to play, never have under Wagner and seemingly still can't. These teams turn up with a game plan to get a point and more often than not we are kind enough to give them all 3 for the troubles. The main problem is the pressing isn't as effective against them as they not only have the ball less so less opportunities but when mistakes are forced there is no space in behind to exploit and this leaves us out of options as we don't have a good enough delivery or patience to break these teams down. This also was a problem for Liverpool last season, although obviously not as badly), who also play the pressing game and they had a really hard time breaking down deep sitting opposition (H v Stoke, H v West Brom, A v Newcastle ) but this season they seem to have found a way ...

Week 13-16 Review - Week 13 - 3 results with 1 score and unfortunately a most confident wrong, bad week overall Week 14 -  5 results with 2 scores and both most confident right, a good week as hitting target Week 15 -  6 results with 1 score and both 'bankers' right, good week as above target would like more scores though Week 16 -  4 results 1 score and both 'bankers' right Overall a fairly good set of results running only slightly below target for number of results, hoping to see a continued improvement as more data becomes available and thus it can be trained more. On the betting front it has fallen quite far down to -£5.60 overall loss (so £160 bet so far and still have £154.40) for the season so could be better. Week 17 Predictions - I can't get the graphic to work again so here is a table, unfortunately this means the predicted GD has been excluded and it is just the results. Home Predicted Score Away Most Confident ...

Week 12 Review - A slight improvement this week and edging closer to the target of half of the results correct a week. This week the predictor got 4 correct results, 3 of which were correct score lines as well which is a shockingly high proportion. Once again we were denied a correct result (& score) in the early kick off by a 90+ minute goal, the early kickoff starting to become unlucky. This takes the tally to 58 results with 11 of them being correct scores. We also lost more money on the betting system this week as the results got were mostly straightforward with quite high odds for success (Man C, Liverpool, Spurs) and are now at a £.120 loss for the season. Week 13 Predictions - I can't get the graphic to work this week so here is a table, unfortunately this means the predicted GD has been excluded and it is just the results. Home Predicted Score Away Most Confident Brighton 1-1 Leicester Everton 2-1 C...

There has been several reports in the media suggesting that despite Town’s impressive first half performance against West Ham they were in fact lucky to get a point in the end due to a number of high quality chances given away. Now when you look at the xG totals from the game it would seem to back this theory up with the xG score being: 1.19-2.04. The only problem here with these totals is that they take all context out of the individual chances when summing them up, it assumes all chances are independent for the relation to hold. Take Hernandez’s double chance just after half time where he takes a shot from close range which is saved before putting a header over the bar. Now he generates an xG of 0.49 and 0.57 for these two chances respectively, which would suggest that he has a 22% chance of not scoring, 50% chance of scoring once and a 28% chance of scoring twice. Although this can’t be true because how could he have scored two goals in that time there was only 1 second between ...