Colossl Victory

So now using version 3 Week 26 Predictions - Home Predicted Score Away Fulham 1-2 Man United Crystal Palace 1-0 West Ham Huddersfield 0-1 Arsenal Liverpool 2-0 Bournemouth Southampton 1-0 Cardiff Watford 2-1 Everton Brighton 1-0 Burnley Tottenham 1-0 Leicester Man City 1-0 Chelsea Wolves 1-0 Newcastle Still a lack of draws - I think I may need to change the data or at least the form it is in to help it predict more accurately. Not many surprising results here with most teams you would expect to win being predicted to and lots of tight games for the rest. Week 25  Review - Home Predicted Score Actual Score Away Tottenham 1-0 1-0 Newcastle Brighton 2-1 0-0 Watford Burnley 2-1 1-1 Southampton Chelsea 1-0 5-0 Huddersfield Crystal Palace 1-0 2-0 Fulham Everton 2-1 1-3 Wolves Cardiff 0-1 2-0 Bournemouth Leicester 1-0 0-1 Man United Man City 1-0 3-1 Arsenal West Ham 1-2 1-1 Liverpool Everton 0-1 0-2 Man City Another good week with 5 results and 1 corre...

In the early months of the season Huddersfield were massively under-performing and the xg stats suggested that their form would increase dramatically and it did with 7 points taken in November but since then both actual and expected performance have dropped significantly and I think a possible explanation is confidence - that being below our xg totals for so long has actually made the squad believe in themselves less and thus produce less quality chances so our xg output sunk and thus are actual goals scored stayed low instead of rising up to the xg average. So I wanted to look and see if it is a common occurrence for clubs xg to move to meet ag rather than the other way round which is to the best of my knowledge what you would expect for a team under or over performing their expected goal scoring ability Take a look at 5 game rolling expected goals (xg) and actual goals (ag) for both Southampton and Huddersfield this season: Southampton as - 5 game rolling average actual goa...

So now using version 3 Week 25 Predictions - Home Predicted Score Away Tottenham 1-0 Newcastle Brighton 2-1 Watford Burnley 2-1 Southampton Chelsea 1-0 Huddersfield Crystal Palace 1-0 Fulham Everton 2-1 Wolves Cardiff 0-1 Bournemouth Leicester 1-0 Man United Man City 1-0 Arsenal West Ham 1-2 Liverpool Everton 0-1 Man City Still no draws not sure why the behaviour is so weird around this - works perfectly fine for other seasons. Chelsea perhaps surpisingly only backed to beat Huddersfield by a small margin but mostly due to their lack of goals in recent weeks. Leicester's impressive performances against big six clubs recently mean they have been backed again against Man United. Week 24  Review - Home Predicted Score Actual Score Away Arsenal 2-0 2-1 Cardiff Fulham 1-0 4-2 Brighton Huddersfield 1-0 0-1 Everton Wolves 2-1 3-0 West Ham Man United 1-2 2-2 Burnley Newcastle 0-1 2-1 Man City Bournemouth 1-0 4-0 Chelsea Southampton 1-0 1-1 Crystal Palace Li...