Premier League Predictions 11

Each week I am going to try and remember to post my ML premier league predictor's predictions for the round of fixtures and keep track of how well it is doing in terms of correct results and scores. I will also be including a track of money won and lost if each predicted result was bet on. This will be done using my v2 for now but will transition to v3 when it is complete.

I am starting 10 weeks in to the season as most teams have now played 5 home and 5 away games and thus the attributes fed to the machine learning algorithm should be fully populated and give more sensible predictions. Due to the way it is set up in very early weeks attributes like form can behave weirdly if a team has 0 points and another max even if it has only been 1 game.

For comparison, so far the predictor has 51 results correct of which 7 of these have been correct scores. Betting £1 on each game's predicted result would have yielded a profit of £5.01 so far not including stake.

Week 11 Predictions -

The information in the central column is the predicted scoreline followed by the predicted goal difference.

This week's results aren't the best example of what it can do as there are 7 1-1's and it is normally much more varied. But this is due to there being lots of close games and it believing from xG that both teams can score - even Huddersfield mostly due to Fulham's poor defensive record. Of the 7 draws the two teams furthest apart are Cardiff and Leicester and Wolves and Spurs at 5 spaces with most being 2 or 1.

The ticks represent the games where it is most confident of getting the result correct and unsurprisingly those results are Manchester City and Chelsea winning.

In the future I will try to add probabilities from each result but that will probably come with predictor v3 which is in the works.

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