Town 1-2 Derby

My Summary
A good performance in both directions marred by a mistake and some poor finishing.

While it was influenced by Derby not needing to score for 65 minutes 1.94-0.57 is still a very good xG scoreline and really quite unlucky to get the result we did.

Attack
I’ve seen a lot of suggestions that last night we were poor going forward, or at the very least no better than we used to be; so let’s take a closer look at this claim.

Last night we created 1.94 xG,which for a start suggests we were quite unlucky not to score a second; on balance either Kachunga or Schindler should have scored.

According to xG, last season we only produced more chances to score on one occasion, away at Bournemouth (an oddly similar game, conceding two silly goals early on, then getting one back quickly but not being able to finish the job). This would suggest that this attacking display was improved from last season, but this result alone is nowhere near definitive.

For a start we got a penalty, which wouldn’t have happened last year, so if we remove all penalties from xG values and look again; how often did we put out a better attacking performance in the Premier League - xG higher than 1.17.

In that case it has increased to 8 games.
Bournemouth A, West Ham H+A, Wolves H, Arsenal H, Man United A, Fulham H, Crystal Palace H
So about 20% of last season had better attacking performances, so this would still be above average. If you take into account a supposedly weaker opposition and that we have the same forwards,  it actually suggests that it’s more likely we are on par with last year attacking wise.

In summary, it’s way too early to decide if we are any better or worse going forward but this first game alone certainly doesn’t suggest we are worse, we just need to find a clinical edge.

Defence
In defence there was those mistakes that have plagued us for a while and ultimately that was the difference. It’s hard to compare how many chances we let Derby have compared to another performance because after the 25th minute they had no need to go forward. But still for anyone interested we only limited 3 teams to less chances last year: Cardiff A, Burnley A, Wolves H.

Expected table

Position       Name         Expected Position
1            Brentford      6.911
2              Swansea      7.174
3                Leeds      7.663
4         Huddersfield      7.859
5                Wigan      8.138
6                  QPR      9.409
7                Luton     10.139
8            West Brom     10.199
9               Readin     10.768
10              Preston     11.189
11             Barnsley     11.909
12            Sheff Wed     12.088
13             Charlton     12.158
14              Milwall     12.475
15                Stoke     13.396
16               Forest     13.554
17        Middlesbrough     14.313
18               Fulham      15.29
19            Blackburn      15.41
20              Cardiff      16.12
21                 Hull     16.426
22                Derby     18.176
23         Bristol City     18.466
24           Birmingham      20.77

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